{"F": {"ts_code": "603262.SH", "name": "技源集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "保健品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250723", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.22, "pe_ttm": 70.4892, "pb": 4.863, "dv_ttm": 0.4579, "total_mv": 768819.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.9, 38.0, 38.9, 43.2, 43.5, 42.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 9.5, 8.9, 10.0, 10.9], "np_series": [null, null, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 1.3], "roe_series": [26.5, 34.2, 28.1, 23.5, 20.5, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 42.5, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 15.2, "roe_median": 23.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 4.86, "capex_dep": 5.07, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 16.1, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": -2.0, "rev_yoy": -8.6, "np_yoy": -25.2, "np_vol": 53.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 62.0, "fwd_pe2": 47.7, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 2.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["HMB", 14.0], ["片剂", 10.0], ["其他营养原料", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -32.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -26.1, "ret_120": -28.3, "ret_250": -37.6, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 36.2, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 62, "hard": 39, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 70.5 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 42.5%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.5%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 5.07 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -26% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "技源集团:PE 比行业中位高 40.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点。"]}}