{"F": {"ts_code": "603260.SH", "name": "合盛硅业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "有机硅", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.89, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3095, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3888278.4941, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 52.9, 34.4, 20.1, 20.5, 7.3], "rev_series": [89.7, 213.4, 236.6, 265.8, 266.9, 205.0], "np_series": [14.0, 82.1, 51.5, 26.2, 17.4, -29.9], "roe_series": [15.4, 55.1, 23.4, 9.3, 5.3, -9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 208.8, "np_ttm": -22.7, "ocf_ttm": 31.2, "fcf_ttm": 23.1, "fcf_yield": 5.9, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 15.5, "gm_stab": 0.24, "gm_chg_2022": 6.2, "npm_median": 9.7, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 76.0, "fix_assets": 610.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 258.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 62.5, "debt_mv": 66.4, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 181.7, "np_vol": 249.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 36.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 77.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["工业硅", 17.0], ["有机硅", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.5, "ret_ytd": -37.6, "ret_pivot": -33.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.6, "ret_60": -20.6, "ret_120": -32.9, "ret_250": -38.9, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 50.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 100, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -22.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 258 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 76%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 24%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 24%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -21% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "合盛硅业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 41.5个百分点。"]}}