{"F": {"ts_code": "603259.SH", "name": "药明康德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180508", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 153.83, "pe_ttm": 21.3287, "pb": 5.5463, "dv_ttm": 1.3569, "total_mv": 46219075.7182, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.0, 36.3, 37.3, 41.2, 41.5, 47.6], "rev_series": [165.4, 229.0, 393.5, 403.4, 392.4, 454.6], "np_series": [29.6, 51.0, 88.1, 96.1, 94.5, 191.5], "roe_series": [11.9, 14.4, 20.7, 18.9, 16.6, 27.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 535.5, "np_ttm": 216.7, "ocf_ttm": 194.7, "fcf_ttm": 130.7, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 41.2, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 24.0, "roe_median": 18.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.6, "fix_assets": 274.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 5.55, "capex_dep": 1.88, "interest_debt": 151.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 27.8, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 59.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": 29.5, "rev_yoy": 38.9, "np_yoy": 29.4, "np_vol": 40.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 34, "fwd_pe": 20.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.1, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["化学业务", 43.0], ["测试业务", 4.0], ["生物学业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.7, "ret_prev2_year": -24.6, "ret_ytd": 73.7, "ret_pivot": 305.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": 59.3, "ret_120": 73.3, "ret_250": 57.7, "mdd_250": -22.8, "vol_250": 45.1, "pos_52w": 91.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 59, "hard": 38, "bondness": 46}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 29%,PE TTM 21.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.8 倍,PEG 0.95。", "自由现金流 130.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 22%(34 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.2%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.3 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 58%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 59% / 73%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "药明康德:PE 比行业中位低 51.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}