{"F": {"ts_code": "603257.SH", "name": "中国瑞林", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 71.66, "pe_ttm": 47.4034, "pb": 3.37, "dv_ttm": 0.6977, "total_mv": 859920.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 20.6, 18.8, 17.6, 18.3, 25.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 26.2, 28.7, 24.7, 19.7], "np_series": [null, null, 1.5, 1.5, 1.6, 1.6], "roe_series": [10.3, 10.1, 9.0, 8.5, 8.3, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.2, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 3.29, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -9.1, "np_cagr3": 2.9, "rev_yoy": -25.3, "np_yoy": 26.9, "np_vol": 3.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工程设计及咨询", 33.0], ["装备集成", 16.0], ["工程总承包", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 21.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": 10.6, "ret_250": 34.5, "mdd_250": -31.1, "vol_250": 52.4, "pos_52w": 85.1}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 43, "hard": 8, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.4 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 3.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.4 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 9% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "中国瑞林:PE 比行业中位高 6.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}