{"F": {"ts_code": "603256.SH", "name": "宏和科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻纤制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190719", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 120.69, "pe_ttm": 220.99, "pb": 37.0168, "dv_ttm": 0.0563, "total_mv": 10917453.2616, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 35.9, 28.8, 8.8, 17.4, 35.6], "rev_series": [6.2, 8.1, 6.1, 6.6, 8.3, 11.7], "np_series": [1.2, 1.2, 0.5, -0.6, 0.2, 2.0], "roe_series": [8.1, 8.2, 3.4, -4.3, 1.6, 13.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.7, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": -17.5, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 28.8, "gm_std": 10.6, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -8.9, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.7, "fix_assets": 26.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 37.02, "capex_dep": 20.93, "interest_debt": 18.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 49.9, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 29.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 24.1, "np_cagr3": 56.8, "rev_yoy": 90.4, "np_yoy": 334.3, "np_vol": 347.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 119.1, "fwd_pe2": 61.6, "fwd_g1": 86.0, "fwd_g2": 93.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子级玻璃纤维布", 33.0], ["电子级玻璃纤维布：E玻璃纤维布", 22.0], ["E玻璃纤维布", 22.0], ["电子级玻璃纤维布：特种电子布", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 343.6, "ret_prev2_year": 0.4, "ret_ytd": 228.5, "ret_pivot": 1767.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -24.0, "ret_60": -42.8, "ret_120": 71.2, "ret_250": 190.0, "mdd_250": -61.2, "vol_250": 84.3, "pos_52w": 40.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 73, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 221.0 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%、固定资产占比 46%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 63%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 20.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 221.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 190%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -24% / -43% / 71%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "宏和科技:PE 比行业中位高 152.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点。"]}}