{"F": {"ts_code": "603248.SH", "name": "锡华科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.74, "pe_ttm": 49.1935, "pb": 3.5602, "dv_ttm": 0.9019, "total_mv": 816040.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.1, 35.9, 29.3, 30.3, 25.9, 27.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 9.4, 9.1, 9.5, 12.6], "np_series": [null, null, 1.8, 1.8, 1.4, 2.0], "roe_series": [36.2, 34.6, 24.6, 19.0, 12.9, 11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 19.5, "roe_median": 19.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.6, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.56, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 22.2, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": 3.1, "rev_yoy": 1.5, "np_yoy": -37.3, "np_vol": 21.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["风电齿轮箱专用部件", 28.0], ["风电齿轮箱", 28.0], ["注塑机部件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -18.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -22.6, "ret_120": -36.7, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -53.6, "vol_250": 64.8, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 49, "hard": 44, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.2 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.2 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "锡华科技:PE 比行业中位高 16.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}