{"F": {"ts_code": "603237.SH", "name": "五芳斋", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.23, "pe_ttm": 25.0156, "pb": 1.7777, "dv_ttm": 3.0682, "total_mv": 318126.9891, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.6, 43.2, 37.5, 36.4, 39.1, 37.0], "rev_series": [24.2, 28.9, 24.6, 26.4, 22.5, 22.4], "np_series": [1.4, 1.9, 1.4, 1.7, 1.4, 1.2], "roe_series": [18.8, 23.9, 10.9, 9.6, 8.2, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.2, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 9.0, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 37.5, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.6, "fix_assets": 10.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.78, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 39.6, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 79.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": -4.0, "rev_yoy": -7.4, "np_yoy": 2.9, "np_vol": 24.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 23.7, "fwd_pe2": 20.9, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["粽子系列", 41.0], ["蛋制品、糕点及其他", 6.0], ["餐食系列", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": 0.3, "ret_pivot": 14.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.4, "ret_60": 12.1, "ret_120": -2.9, "ret_250": -7.8, "mdd_250": -33.7, "vol_250": 26.6, "pos_52w": 87.0}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 55, "hard": 59, "bondness": 67}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 11 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 9.0%,股息率 3.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 80%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 37.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.0%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.0 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 12% / -3%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "五芳斋:PE 比行业中位低 4.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}