{"F": {"ts_code": "603232.SH", "name": "格尔软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9227, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 370677.6864, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.1, 51.7, 39.9, 47.5, 52.0, 49.2], "rev_series": [4.4, 6.1, 6.6, 5.6, 5.3, 3.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, -0.1, 0.4, 0.4, -0.8], "roe_series": [5.7, 5.9, -0.6, 2.7, 2.6, -6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 49.2, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -15.3, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": -0.15, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 18.3, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 34.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -18.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.1, "np_yoy": 15.9, "np_vol": 281.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 79.7, "fwd_pe2": 56.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 1.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["PKI安全应用产品", 28.0], ["通用安全产品", 16.0], ["PKI基础设施产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.9, "ret_prev2_year": -5.5, "ret_ytd": -30.5, "ret_pivot": 48.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -31.8, "ret_250": -3.1, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 63.8, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 14, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.2%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 -0.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -0% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "格尔软件:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}