{"F": {"ts_code": "603231.SH", "name": "索宝蛋白", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "粮油加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.69, "pe_ttm": 19.9192, "pb": 1.5946, "dv_ttm": 2.2169, "total_mv": 319545.2379, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.4, 14.0, 13.3, 13.6, 12.0, 16.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 18.5, 17.5, 15.6, 17.5], "np_series": [null, null, 1.7, 1.5, 1.2, 1.9], "roe_series": [16.4, 18.7, 22.5, 11.2, 6.4, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 9.1, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.6, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.59, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 13.6, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": 4.1, "rev_yoy": 24.9, "np_yoy": -30.1, "np_vol": 28.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 14.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["大豆分离蛋白", 10.0], ["分离蛋白", 10.0], ["非转基因精纯大豆油", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.3, "ret_prev2_year": -29.8, "ret_ytd": -7.0, "ret_pivot": 23.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": 11.1, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": -3.1, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 30.8, "pos_52w": 77.0}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 45, "hard": 57, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 9.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 11% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "索宝蛋白:PE 比行业中位低 19.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}