{"F": {"ts_code": "603230.SH", "name": "内蒙新华", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.8, "pe_ttm": 48.0248, "pb": 1.265, "dv_ttm": 1.5306, "total_mv": 346452.54, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.1, 38.9, 39.4, 40.2, 40.3, 39.2], "rev_series": [12.7, 15.9, 16.6, 18.4, 18.1, 15.1], "np_series": [2.0, 2.3, 2.7, 3.1, 3.4, 1.7], "roe_series": [23.0, 15.3, 12.2, 12.9, 12.7, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 39.4, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.2, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 36.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": -13.3, "rev_yoy": -24.2, "np_yoy": -81.8, "np_vol": 25.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["一般图书", 31.0], ["教材图书", 15.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -19.7, "ret_pivot": 2.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -27.1, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 28.9, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 61, "hard": 45, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.0 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.4%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.4%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 5% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "内蒙新华:PE 比行业中位高 15.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.5个百分点。"]}}