{"F": {"ts_code": "603226.SH", "name": "菲林格尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.48, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 14.7893, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1225735.7264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.9, 21.6, 16.2, 14.7, 13.3, 3.4], "rev_series": [6.0, 7.8, 5.3, 4.0, 3.1, 3.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.2, 0.1, -0.2, -0.4, -0.8], "roe_series": [6.3, 2.1, 1.1, -1.7, -3.9, -8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": -5.2, "roe_median": -1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.8, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.79, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -30.4, "np_yoy": -31.8, "np_vol": 71.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 568.5, "ret_prev2_year": -32.0, "ret_ytd": 9.0, "ret_pivot": 1019.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -30.2, "ret_60": -38.1, "ret_120": -11.6, "ret_250": 46.5, "mdd_250": -41.7, "vol_250": 62.3, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 32, "hard": 68, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点;资产负债率 26%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 46%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -30% / -38% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "菲林格尔:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}