{"F": {"ts_code": "603225.SH", "name": "新凤鸣", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.94, "pe_ttm": 19.1246, "pb": 1.5358, "dv_ttm": 0.9887, "total_mv": 3344922.6372, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.0, 10.5, 3.7, 5.8, 5.6, 5.3], "rev_series": [369.8, 447.7, 507.9, 614.7, 670.9, 715.6], "np_series": [6.0, 22.5, -2.1, 10.9, 11.0, 10.2], "roe_series": [5.1, 15.8, -1.3, 6.7, 6.5, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 787.6, "np_ttm": 17.5, "ocf_ttm": 24.6, "fcf_ttm": -26.4, "fcf_yield": -7.9, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 5.6, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.1, "fix_assets": 357.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 349.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 67.0, "debt_mv": 104.4, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.5, "np_yoy": 103.2, "np_vol": 267.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["POY", 17.0], ["PTA(行业)", 11.0], ["PTA", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 79.9, "ret_prev2_year": -20.8, "ret_ytd": 3.5, "ret_pivot": 117.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": 12.7, "ret_250": 38.3, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 55.5, "pos_52w": 89.8}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 30, "hard": 87, "bondness": 40}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.6%,稳定度 59%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.6%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.1 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 38%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 10% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "新凤鸣:PE 比行业中位低 13.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}