{"F": {"ts_code": "603223.SH", "name": "恒通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "油品石化贸易", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.29, "pe_ttm": 20.6834, "pb": 1.7585, "dv_ttm": 1.1176, "total_mv": 726291.0438, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.9, 3.4, 3.0, 5.5, 14.0, 30.5], "rev_series": [56.0, 70.8, 52.7, 37.6, 20.0, 13.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.0, 1.0, 1.2, 1.6, 2.7], "roe_series": [11.2, 8.4, 4.2, 3.2, 4.1, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.1, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 10.4, "gm_stab": -0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.7, "fix_assets": 25.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.76, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 7.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 22.1, "debt_mv": 10.5, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -36.3, "np_cagr3": 36.9, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": 85.5, "np_vol": 30.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 18.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["码头营运", 13.0], ["码头收入", 13.0], ["货物运输", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.5, "ret_prev2_year": 7.1, "ret_ytd": 11.5, "ret_pivot": 31.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": 13.6, "ret_120": 12.0, "ret_250": 2.6, "mdd_250": -32.4, "vol_250": 44.5, "pos_52w": 71.5}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 8, "hard": 75, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 -89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 -89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.7 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 14% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "恒通股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}