{"F": {"ts_code": "603221.SH", "name": "爱丽家居", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200323", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3193, "dv_ttm": 0.1088, "total_mv": 668180.66, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 7.8, 3.4, 18.5, 23.5, 13.1], "rev_series": [10.8, 10.8, 8.0, 11.8, 13.1, 11.3], "np_series": [0.8, 0.1, -0.4, 0.8, 1.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.3, 0.4, -2.5, 5.4, 9.0, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": 0.45, "gm_chg_2022": -14.4, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.1, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.32, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 28.2, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 31.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": -236.9, "np_vol": 338.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["锁扣地板", 40.0], ["普通地板", 8.0], ["悬浮地板", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.5, "ret_prev2_year": -7.4, "ret_ytd": 111.0, "ret_pivot": 249.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 126.4, "ret_120": 121.7, "ret_250": 120.6, "mdd_250": -33.7, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 82.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 71, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 45%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 45%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 121%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 126% / 122%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "爱丽家居:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.5个百分点。"]}}