{"F": {"ts_code": "603220.SH", "name": "中贝通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信工程及服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20181115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.33, "pe_ttm": 237.5828, "pb": 2.5826, "dv_ttm": 0.3819, "total_mv": 983144.5806, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 19.9, 17.0, 16.3, 19.1, 19.7], "rev_series": [20.7, 26.4, 26.4, 28.6, 29.8, 32.5], "np_series": [0.6, 1.8, 1.1, 1.4, 1.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [3.5, 10.9, 6.2, 7.7, 7.3, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": -12.2, "fcf_yield": -12.4, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.0, "fix_assets": 34.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 2.53, "capex_dep": 4.13, "interest_debt": 46.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.3, "debt_ratio": 66.0, "debt_mv": 46.8, "payout": 34.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.1, "np_cagr3": -9.2, "rev_yoy": -14.3, "np_yoy": -79.0, "np_vol": 96.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["5G新基建", 19.0], ["算力", 12.0], ["智算业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.8, "ret_prev2_year": -11.8, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 3.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.0, "ret_60": -19.6, "ret_120": -29.9, "ret_250": -21.5, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 46, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 237.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 4.13 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 237.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -20% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "中贝通信:PE 比行业中位高 155.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.9个百分点。"]}}