{"F": {"ts_code": "603218.SH", "name": "日月股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.24, "pe_ttm": 22.0261, "pb": 0.9046, "dv_ttm": 4.0673, "total_mv": 951578.166, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 20.3, 12.8, 18.7, 17.3, 16.9], "rev_series": [51.1, 47.1, 48.7, 46.6, 47.0, 62.6], "np_series": [9.8, 6.7, 3.4, 4.8, 6.2, 5.5], "roe_series": [16.5, 7.9, 3.8, 5.0, 6.3, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.8, "np_ttm": 4.3, "ocf_ttm": 13.4, "fcf_ttm": 9.1, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 14.0, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -15.6, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.0, "fix_assets": 33.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.9, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 5.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 25.2, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 114.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": 17.1, "rev_yoy": -20.8, "np_yoy": -42.8, "np_vol": 34.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.1, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["球墨铸铁类产品", 48.0], ["其他类产品", 2.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.7, "ret_prev2_year": -0.4, "ret_ytd": -28.2, "ret_pivot": -5.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.9, "ret_60": -9.9, "ret_120": -43.2, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 33.6, "pos_52w": 56.8}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 42, "hard": 38, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 115%、股息率 4.1%、营收 3 年复合 8.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 14.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -10% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "日月股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}