{"F": {"ts_code": "603217.SH", "name": "元利科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190620", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.0, "pe_ttm": 25.9498, "pb": 1.7244, "dv_ttm": 1.0345, "total_mv": 603454.04, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 23.8, 26.3, 18.2, 16.9, 17.2], "rev_series": [12.2, 23.4, 26.8, 21.8, 22.2, 21.8], "np_series": [1.6, 3.6, 4.7, 2.5, 2.1, 1.9], "roe_series": [7.1, 14.9, 16.8, 8.1, 6.4, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.8, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 18.2, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.0, "fix_assets": 16.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.72, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 32.3, "debt_mv": 12.4, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": -25.6, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": 36.7, "np_vol": 60.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 21.6, "fwd_pe2": 18.4, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["脂肪醇系列产品", 15.0], ["脂肪醇", 15.0], ["二元酸二甲酯系列产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.1, "ret_ytd": 14.5, "ret_pivot": 142.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.8, "ret_60": 25.3, "ret_120": 22.1, "ret_250": 54.4, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 90.1}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 48, "hard": 51, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 54%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 25% / 22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "元利科技:PE 比行业中位低 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}