{"F": {"ts_code": "603215.SH", "name": "比依股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "小家电", "sw3": "厨房小家电", "ind": "小家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.34, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6517, "dv_ttm": 1.6035, "total_mv": 307729.3734, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.1, 15.4, 19.5, 21.2, 15.5, 14.1], "rev_series": [11.6, 16.3, 15.0, 15.6, 20.6, 23.5], "np_series": [1.1, 1.2, 1.8, 2.0, 1.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [58.2, 41.3, 26.4, 19.1, 12.2, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.7, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -12.2, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 19.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.0, "fix_assets": 14.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.65, "capex_dep": 3.47, "interest_debt": 8.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.0, "debt_ratio": 56.0, "debt_mv": 26.4, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.2, "np_cagr3": -22.9, "rev_yoy": -6.8, "np_yoy": -160.6, "np_vol": 32.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 21.9, "fwd_pe2": 16.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["空气烤箱,空气炸锅", 25.0], ["空气炸锅及烤箱", 25.0], ["配件及其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.3, "ret_prev2_year": 0.6, "ret_ytd": -34.3, "ret_pivot": 12.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 54, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -0% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小家电」23 家中位:PE 50.5 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 50%。", "比依股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}