{"F": {"ts_code": "603211.SH", "name": "晋拓股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220725", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.78, "pe_ttm": 103.9429, "pb": 4.486, "dv_ttm": 0.3705, "total_mv": 564817.024, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 19.8, 19.1, 17.2, 16.2, 17.1], "rev_series": [7.0, 9.2, 9.8, 10.0, 11.8, 12.8], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [16.2, 13.3, 7.3, 4.5, 4.3, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.2, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.49, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 44.3, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 31.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 18.4, "np_yoy": -44.2, "np_vol": 21.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.2, "ret_prev2_year": -22.0, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 59.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -23.9, "ret_60": -37.1, "ret_120": -7.8, "ret_250": 0.0, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 60.9, "pos_52w": 52.7}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 46, "hard": 71, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -24% / -37% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "晋拓股份:PE 比行业中位高 73.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点。"]}}