{"F": {"ts_code": "603210.SH", "name": "泰鸿万立", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.56, "pe_ttm": 21.5439, "pb": 2.3674, "dv_ttm": 0.8665, "total_mv": 461582.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.7, 21.7, 22.3, 23.3, 21.7, 20.5], "rev_series": [6.0, 10.1, 14.8, 15.4, 16.9, 22.9], "np_series": [0.2, 0.8, 1.3, 1.6, 1.8, 2.0], "roe_series": [4.4, 14.6, 19.3, 20.2, 18.3, 13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -5.6, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 21.7, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 4.6, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 18.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.3, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 2.13, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 36.3, "debt_mv": 8.1, "payout": 18.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 15.8, "np_cagr3": 16.7, "rev_yoy": 20.9, "np_yoy": 14.3, "np_vol": 88.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["结构件", 35.0], ["功能件", 10.0], ["边角料", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -29.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -36.3, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 26.5, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 55, "hard": 72, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.5 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%、固定资产占比 45%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -8% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "泰鸿万立:PE 比行业中位低 8.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.8个百分点。"]}}