{"F": {"ts_code": "603209.SH", "name": "兴通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.55, "pe_ttm": 13.6105, "pb": 1.3787, "dv_ttm": 1.3619, "total_mv": 472875.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.9, 51.6, 41.6, 33.2, 36.0, 28.7], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.7, 7.8, 12.4, 15.1, 16.3], "np_series": [1.2, 2.0, 2.1, 2.5, 3.5, 2.7], "roe_series": [27.0, 25.8, 14.2, 11.9, 14.7, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_yield": -10.2, "ocf_yield": 12.8, "gm_median": 36.0, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -10.3, "npm_median": 23.5, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.8, "fix_assets": 48.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 4.9, "interest_debt": 17.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 39.8, "debt_mv": 37.4, "payout": 16.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.5, "np_cagr3": 9.4, "rev_yoy": 29.4, "np_yoy": 57.1, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 12.5, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["程租-自有船舶", 43.0], ["期租", 6.0], ["程租-外租船舶", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.0, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": -2.7, "ret_pivot": 10.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": 15.1, "ret_120": -4.2, "ret_250": -4.4, "mdd_250": -27.4, "vol_250": 28.4, "pos_52w": 84.3}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 49, "hard": 100, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.6 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.0%、固定资产占比 76%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 76%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.0%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.2%(经营现金流/市值 12.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.0%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 4.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 15% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "兴通股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.7个百分点。"]}}