{"F": {"ts_code": "603208.SH", "name": "江山欧派", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0866, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 199798.8848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.2, 29.1, 23.9, 26.0, 21.1, 17.4], "rev_series": [30.1, 31.6, 32.1, 37.4, 30.0, 16.2], "np_series": [4.3, 2.6, -3.0, 3.9, 1.1, -1.9], "roe_series": [28.8, 14.7, -18.3, 26.4, 7.6, -16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.9, "np_ttm": -3.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -5.1, "ocf_yield": -4.6, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.3, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.02, "capex_dep": 0.08, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 62.1, "debt_mv": 32.6, "payout": 55.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -20.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -49.8, "np_yoy": -1017.1, "np_vol": 176.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["夹板模压门", 29.0], ["其他产品", 18.0], ["其他主营业务", 18.0], ["加盟费及服务费收入", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.3, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": -29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -27.0, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 32.3, "pos_52w": 70.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 56, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.1%(经营现金流/市值 -4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "江山欧派:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点。"]}}