{"F": {"ts_code": "603203.SH", "name": "快克智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.0, "pe_ttm": 86.2068, "pb": 9.2193, "dv_ttm": 0.9381, "total_mv": 1353047.56, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.2, 51.6, 51.9, 47.3, 48.6, 47.7], "rev_series": [5.3, 7.8, 9.0, 7.9, 9.5, 10.8], "np_series": [1.8, 2.7, 2.7, 1.9, 2.1, 1.4], "roe_series": [16.7, 22.1, 20.3, 13.8, 15.2, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 48.6, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 23.8, "roe_median": 15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.3, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.5, "pb_calc": 9.22, "capex_dep": 2.55, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 77.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": -20.3, "rev_yoy": 31.8, "np_yoy": 14.0, "np_vol": 31.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 38.9, "fwd_pe2": 32.1, "fwd_g1": 122.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": 47.6, "ret_pivot": 194.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.8, "ret_60": -30.6, "ret_120": 37.5, "ret_250": 81.6, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 64.2, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 64, "hard": 20, "bondness": 47}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 86.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 38.9 倍,次年 32.1 倍,PEG 1.85。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.6%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.55 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 86.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 82%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -31% / 38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "快克智能:PE 比行业中位高 8.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}