{"F": {"ts_code": "603201.SH", "name": "常润股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220729", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.57, "pe_ttm": 14.862, "pb": 1.6621, "dv_ttm": 2.2286, "total_mv": 295798.3929, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 16.2, 17.6, 20.2, 19.9, 23.3], "rev_series": [24.7, 30.6, 27.6, 27.5, 30.1, 30.5], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.7, 2.1, 2.5, 2.2], "roe_series": [31.2, 26.8, 18.4, 15.2, 15.7, 12.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.9, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 10.4, "gm_median": 19.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.2, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 2.76, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 44.6, "debt_mv": 18.1, "payout": 35.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": 7.6, "rev_yoy": 9.7, "np_yoy": -15.6, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.8, "ret_prev2_year": -10.0, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 48.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -15.4, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": -8.4, "mdd_250": -35.4, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 48, "hard": 39, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.9 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 10.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -15% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "常润股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}