{"F": {"ts_code": "603199.SH", "name": "九华旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.09, "pe_ttm": 16.9103, "pb": 2.1942, "dv_ttm": 2.2587, "total_mv": 377308.12, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.8, 41.2, 26.4, 49.6, 50.2, 49.9], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.3, 3.3, 7.2, 7.6, 8.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, -0.1, 1.7, 1.9, 2.1], "roe_series": [4.5, 4.8, -1.1, 13.1, 12.7, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.0, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 49.6, "gm_std": 9.2, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -15.4, "npm_median": 24.1, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.9, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.19, "capex_dep": 2.46, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 22.5, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 40.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 38.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.4, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 561.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["旅行社业务", 44.0], ["索道缆车业务", 37.0], ["酒店业务", 27.0], ["客运业务", 26.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.4, "ret_prev2_year": 36.2, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": 9.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 5.5, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -6.9, "mdd_250": -29.8, "vol_250": 29.9, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 57, "hard": 77, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.9 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 49.6%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 49.6%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.6%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.9 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 6% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "九华旅游:PE 比行业中位低 49.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.1个百分点。"]}}