{"F": {"ts_code": "603198.SH", "name": "迎驾贡酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.05, "pe_ttm": 16.2802, "pb": 3.099, "dv_ttm": 3.6541, "total_mv": 3284000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [67.1, 67.5, 68.0, 71.4, 73.9, 72.5], "rev_series": [34.5, 45.8, 55.1, 67.2, 73.4, 60.2], "np_series": [9.5, 13.8, 17.1, 22.9, 25.9, 19.9], "roe_series": [19.3, 24.9, 26.5, 30.0, 28.5, 19.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.7, "np_ttm": 20.2, "ocf_ttm": 19.9, "fcf_ttm": 14.1, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 71.4, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 33.1, "roe_median": 26.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.1, "fix_assets": 36.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.1, "capex_dep": 1.99, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 20.4, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 46.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": 5.2, "rev_yoy": 8.1, "np_yoy": 2.8, "np_vol": 23.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 28, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.4, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["中高档白酒", 40.0], ["普通白酒", 7.0], ["包装材料", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -25.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.8, "ret_ytd": 7.9, "ret_pivot": -17.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.8, "ret_60": 24.9, "ret_120": 20.8, "ret_250": -9.9, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 36.8, "pos_52w": 92.0}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 77, "hard": 43, "bondness": 56}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 27%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 71.4%,稳定度 96%、ROE 近 5 年中位 26.5%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%,分红率 46%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 71.4%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 71.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.99 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.3 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 25% / 21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "迎驾贡酒:PE 比行业中位低 9.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}