{"F": {"ts_code": "603197.SH", "name": "保隆科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.27, "pe_ttm": 18.9568, "pb": 1.9543, "dv_ttm": 1.6706, "total_mv": 647855.4912, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.9, 27.4, 28.0, 27.4, 25.1, 21.1], "rev_series": [33.3, 39.0, 47.8, 59.0, 70.2, 87.5], "np_series": [1.8, 2.7, 2.1, 3.8, 3.0, 2.1], "roe_series": [16.8, 16.0, 9.1, 13.9, 9.8, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 94.8, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 27.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.0, "fix_assets": 37.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 52.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 70.6, "debt_mv": 81.3, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.3, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": 18.6, "np_yoy": 95.8, "np_vol": 42.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 16.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["TPMS及配件和工具", 9.0], ["智能悬架", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.2, "ret_prev2_year": -32.6, "ret_ytd": -17.7, "ret_pivot": -1.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -40.0, "vol_250": 32.1, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 50, "hard": 46, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.0 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 8% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "保隆科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点。"]}}