{"F": {"ts_code": "603196.SH", "name": "璞源材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170531", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.85, "pe_ttm": 203.0811, "pb": 3.8894, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 789225.9375, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.2, 57.6, 55.7, 56.6, 55.6, 59.3], "rev_series": [8.2, 10.2, 9.5, 10.3, 8.7, 8.2], "np_series": [-0.5, 0.8, 0.2, 0.2, -1.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [-5.4, 9.7, 2.0, 2.1, -22.1, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 56.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.0, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 11.0, "pb_calc": 3.89, "capex_dep": 2.71, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.0, "np_cagr3": 2.8, "rev_yoy": 104.3, "np_yoy": 54.5, "np_vol": 457.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 24.2, "fwd_pe2": 18.0, "fwd_g1": 740.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂电池粘结剂：锂电池粘结剂", 28.0], ["锂电池粘结剂", 28.0], ["服装产品", 22.0], ["服装", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.8, "ret_prev2_year": -0.3, "ret_ytd": -26.2, "ret_pivot": 132.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.8, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -32.0, "ret_250": -14.4, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 69, "hard": 38, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 203.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 56.6%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.6%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 203.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -12% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "璞源材料:PE 比行业中位高 165.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点。"]}}