{"F": {"ts_code": "603195.SH", "name": "公牛集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.3, "pe_ttm": 17.0292, "pb": 4.6649, "dv_ttm": 4.8466, "total_mv": 7087543.173, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.1, 37.0, 38.0, 43.2, 43.2, 43.1], "rev_series": [100.5, 123.8, 140.8, 156.9, 168.3, 160.3], "np_series": [23.1, 27.8, 31.9, 38.7, 42.7, 40.7], "roe_series": [31.5, 28.0, 27.5, 28.8, 28.2, 24.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 162.5, "np_ttm": 41.6, "ocf_ttm": 46.0, "fcf_ttm": 42.7, "fcf_yield": 6.0, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 43.1, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 24.6, "roe_median": 28.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 35.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.66, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 9.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 72.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 8.5, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 4.4, "np_vol": 9.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.9, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": -10.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -6.2, "ret_250": -15.7, "mdd_250": -21.8, "vol_250": 22.5, "pos_52w": 83.4}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 60, "hard": 27, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 72%、股息率 4.8%、营收 3 年复合 4.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.1%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -3% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "公牛集团:PE 比行业中位低 11.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}