{"F": {"ts_code": "603193.SH", "name": "润本股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "个护用品", "sw3": "洗护用品", "ind": "个护用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231017", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.84, "pe_ttm": 25.0984, "pb": 3.7748, "dv_ttm": 2.1062, "total_mv": 883631.7672, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.5, 53.0, 54.2, 56.3, 58.2, 58.3], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.8, 8.6, 10.3, 13.2, 15.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.6, 2.3, 3.0, 3.1], "roe_series": [48.9, 29.7, 24.9, 17.1, 15.0, 14.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.0, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 56.3, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 20.7, "roe_median": 17.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.77, "capex_dep": 4.04, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 8.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 55.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 21.7, "np_cagr3": 25.3, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": 20.0, "np_vol": 12.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 23.3, "fwd_pe2": 19.8, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["驱蚊系列产品", 29.0], ["驱蚊产品", 29.0], ["婴童护理系列产品", 26.0], ["精油系列产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.8, "ret_prev2_year": 32.2, "ret_ytd": -8.9, "ret_pivot": 27.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 3.7, "ret_120": -1.3, "ret_250": -27.5, "mdd_250": -39.0, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 71, "hard": 21, "bondness": 32}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 13%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 56.3%,稳定度 96%、ROE 近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%,分红率 55%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 4.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.1 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「个护用品」12 家中位:PE 25.1 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 28.2% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 70%。", "润本股份:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点。"]}}