{"F": {"ts_code": "603188.SH", "name": "亚邦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.9693, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 278242.96, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 11.7, 3.5, -7.2, 8.9, 11.1], "rev_series": [6.5, 8.4, 9.7, 6.5, 7.0, 7.6], "np_series": [-6.1, -1.4, -7.0, -5.8, -2.6, -0.6], "roe_series": [-23.1, -6.2, -37.7, -47.8, -31.9, -7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -5.9, "ocf_yield": -5.3, "gm_median": 8.9, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.21, "gm_chg_2022": -14.3, "npm_median": -33.1, "roe_median": -31.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.97, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 18.9, "debt_ratio": 59.4, "debt_mv": 18.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": 433.1, "np_vol": 183.7, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["染料", 42.0], ["染料中间体", 5.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.3, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": 6.3, "ret_pivot": 81.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.8, "ret_60": 14.6, "ret_120": -9.0, "ret_250": 9.9, "mdd_250": -40.8, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 16, "hard": 60, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 18.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%,稳定度 21%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.9%(经营现金流/市值 -5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.9%,稳定度 21%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 21% / 15% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "亚邦股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}