{"F": {"ts_code": "603186.SH", "name": "华正新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 169.17, "pe_ttm": 65.1742, "pb": 10.7673, "dv_ttm": 0.0768, "total_mv": 2652424.8885, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.9, 16.5, 13.0, 8.9, 10.2, 13.1], "rev_series": [22.8, 36.2, 32.9, 33.6, 38.6, 43.7], "np_series": [1.3, 2.4, 0.4, -1.2, -1.0, 2.8], "roe_series": [11.4, 15.3, 2.2, -7.5, -6.5, 17.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.3, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 26.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.77, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 13.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 65.1, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 6.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.0, "np_cagr3": 97.2, "rev_yoy": 41.3, "np_yoy": 305.3, "np_vol": 265.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 50.7, "fwd_pe2": 33.7, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 51.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["覆铜板", 42.0], ["交通物流用复合材料", 3.0], ["导热材料", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 106.5, "ret_prev2_year": -30.7, "ret_ytd": 242.0, "ret_pivot": 710.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.3, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": 147.0, "ret_250": 315.7, "mdd_250": -62.5, "vol_250": 78.0, "pos_52w": 64.4}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 38, "hard": 60, "bondness": 19}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 316%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -1% / 147%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "华正新材:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}