{"F": {"ts_code": "603185.SH", "name": "弘元绿能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "硅料硅片", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20181228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.78, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8933, "dv_ttm": 1.0149, "total_mv": 1009587.5104, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.5, 19.7, 21.4, 15.7, -7.3, 11.1], "rev_series": [30.1, 109.2, 219.1, 118.6, 73.0, 74.3], "np_series": [5.3, 17.1, 30.3, 7.4, -27.0, 1.9], "roe_series": [24.3, 33.9, 30.4, 6.0, -22.6, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 84.8, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 10.4, "gm_stab": 0.34, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.0, "fix_assets": 116.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 28.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 57.3, "debt_mv": 27.8, "payout": 50.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -30.3, "np_cagr3": -60.5, "rev_yoy": 32.6, "np_yoy": -128.9, "np_vol": 238.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 52.8, "fwd_pe2": 22.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 136.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["光伏产品", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 88.5, "ret_prev2_year": -51.4, "ret_ytd": -51.3, "ret_pivot": 24.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.6, "ret_60": -16.4, "ret_120": -41.3, "ret_250": -27.4, "mdd_250": -65.0, "vol_250": 54.1, "pos_52w": 39.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 24, "hard": 70, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -16% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "弘元绿能:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点。"]}}