{"F": {"ts_code": "603182.SH", "name": "嘉华股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "粮油加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.72, "pe_ttm": 25.3444, "pb": 2.0003, "dv_ttm": 2.9155, "total_mv": 225762.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 13.1, 13.1, 12.7, 12.5, 13.1], "rev_series": [9.7, 12.3, 16.1, 16.9, 14.9, 13.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1, 0.9], "roe_series": [21.1, 18.5, 16.0, 11.0, 10.4, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 0.69, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 59.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.9, "np_cagr3": -6.1, "rev_yoy": 25.7, "np_yoy": -9.0, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["大豆蛋白", 59.0], ["大豆油", 23.0], ["大豆膳食纤维", 6.0], ["蒸汽", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.0, "ret_prev2_year": -21.1, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 40.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.6, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -11.4, "ret_250": 0.7, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 31.5, "pos_52w": 80.9}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 48, "hard": 78, "bondness": 59}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 98%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.3 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 12% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "嘉华股份:PE 比行业中位低 13.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点。"]}}