{"F": {"ts_code": "603178.SH", "name": "圣龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170328", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.6499, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 413720.825, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 14.3, 15.2, 13.8, 12.2, 4.2], "rev_series": [12.2, 15.0, 14.8, 14.5, 16.2, 16.7], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 0.9, 0.5, 0.3, -2.1], "roe_series": [8.6, 11.0, 7.3, 4.2, 2.3, -17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.3, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 13.8, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.6, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.65, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 46.7, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.5, "np_yoy": 125.4, "np_vol": 326.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["发动机油泵", 25.0], ["变速箱油泵", 9.0], ["变速器零件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.6, "ret_prev2_year": -58.1, "ret_ytd": -7.3, "ret_pivot": -7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": 6.5, "ret_250": -12.3, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 55.4, "pos_52w": 73.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 55, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 9% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "圣龙股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}