{"F": {"ts_code": "603171.SH", "name": "税友股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.82, "pe_ttm": 114.3756, "pb": 7.1203, "dv_ttm": 0.4457, "total_mv": 1821238.29, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.1, 59.3, 58.6, 55.6, 55.2, 57.3], "rev_series": [15.4, 16.0, 17.0, 18.3, 19.5, 20.5], "np_series": [3.0, 2.3, 1.4, 0.8, 1.1, 1.4], "roe_series": [18.2, 11.0, 5.9, 3.4, 4.6, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 57.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.3, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.12, "capex_dep": 2.2, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 40.0, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": -1.8, "rev_yoy": 9.7, "np_yoy": 32.4, "np_vol": 31.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 73.6, "fwd_pe2": 51.2, "fwd_g1": 55.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 1.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数智财税业务", 77.0], ["数字政务业务", 35.0], ["其他业务", 0.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 82.5, "ret_prev2_year": -13.6, "ret_ytd": -18.4, "ret_pivot": 94.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -26.4, "mdd_250": -60.5, "vol_250": 54.7, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 69, "hard": 40, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 114.4 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 57.3%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.3%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.20 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 3% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "税友股份:PE 比行业中位高 30.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.7个百分点。"]}}