{"F": {"ts_code": "603170.SH", "name": "宝立食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.87, "pe_ttm": 18.7605, "pb": 3.4535, "dv_ttm": 3.4188, "total_mv": 514812.87, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 31.2, 34.6, 33.1, 32.8, 33.3], "rev_series": [9.0, 15.8, 20.4, 23.7, 26.5, 29.3], "np_series": [1.3, 1.9, 2.2, 3.0, 2.3, 2.6], "roe_series": [32.3, 32.7, 24.2, 24.3, 17.1, 18.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.6, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 5.7, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 24.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.7, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 3.45, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 25.9, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": 6.8, "rev_yoy": 16.1, "np_yoy": 10.1, "np_vol": 22.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轻烹解决方案", 24.0], ["复合调味料", 23.0], ["饮品甜点配料", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.8, "ret_prev2_year": -7.4, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 26.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.9, "ret_60": 10.6, "ret_120": -4.0, "ret_250": -3.7, "mdd_250": -29.4, "vol_250": 31.0, "pos_52w": 80.4}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 62, "hard": 44, "bondness": 52}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 67%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 12.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.1%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.8 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 11% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "宝立食品:PE 比行业中位低 8.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}