{"F": {"ts_code": "603169.SH", "name": "兰石重装", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141009", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.61, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4557, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 863458.8798, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.6, 16.8, 14.0, 15.1, 14.9, 7.6], "rev_series": [29.0, 40.4, 49.8, 51.6, 57.9, 64.9], "np_series": [-2.8, 1.2, 1.8, 1.5, 1.6, -6.0], "roe_series": [-16.9, 5.5, 5.8, 4.8, 4.9, -20.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.7, "np_ttm": -8.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.2, "fix_assets": 29.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 35.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.9, "debt_mv": 40.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -21.9, "np_yoy": -5255.6, "np_vol": 217.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["传统能源装备", 21.0], ["工程总包", 9.0], ["金属新材料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.6, "ret_prev2_year": -11.5, "ret_ytd": -38.0, "ret_pivot": 54.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -9.0, "ret_120": -48.4, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -56.4, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 49.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 37, "bondness": 14}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -8.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 35 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -9% / -48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "兰石重装:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}