{"F": {"ts_code": "603167.SH", "name": "渤海轮渡", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120906", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.15, "pe_ttm": 17.6651, "pb": 1.1544, "dv_ttm": 11.0429, "total_mv": 382352.7675, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 25.4, 6.4, 27.1, 28.2, 27.0], "rev_series": [11.7, 14.0, 13.1, 18.4, 18.2, 18.4], "np_series": [1.4, 2.0, 1.6, 2.5, 2.7, 2.6], "roe_series": [4.0, 5.8, 4.5, 6.7, 7.4, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.4, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 11.2, "ocf_yield": 11.9, "gm_median": 27.0, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -12.3, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.6, "fix_assets": 29.7, "goodwill_ratio": 6.4, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 153.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.2, "np_cagr3": 17.5, "rev_yoy": -0.8, "np_yoy": -46.1, "np_vol": 29.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.0, "ret_prev2_year": 11.6, "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_pivot": 51.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -4.6, "ret_120": -9.8, "ret_250": -14.6, "mdd_250": -20.9, "vol_250": 20.5, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 41, "hard": 100, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 153%、股息率 11.0%、营收 3 年复合 12.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.2%(经营现金流/市值 11.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.0%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.7 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -21%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -5% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "渤海轮渡:PE 比行业中位高 0.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.5个百分点。"]}}