{"F": {"ts_code": "603166.SH", "name": "福达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.06, "pe_ttm": 21.8142, "pb": 2.6106, "dv_ttm": 1.7817, "total_mv": 714089.6742, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 25.7, 20.6, 23.8, 25.0, 27.9], "rev_series": [17.7, 18.1, 11.3, 13.5, 16.5, 19.9], "np_series": [2.0, 2.1, 0.7, 1.0, 1.9, 3.2], "roe_series": [9.1, 8.5, 2.6, 4.4, 7.9, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.0, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.9, "fix_assets": 26.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 11.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 44.4, "debt_mv": 16.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.6, "np_cagr3": 69.0, "rev_yoy": 12.2, "np_yoy": 7.4, "np_vol": 55.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 19.1, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 122.4, "ret_prev2_year": 8.4, "ret_ytd": -28.6, "ret_pivot": 150.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": -14.6, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -42.8, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 53.0}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 49, "hard": 86, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.8 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%、固定资产占比 54%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.8 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -15% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "福达股份:PE 比行业中位低 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.4个百分点。"]}}