{"F": {"ts_code": "603165.SH", "name": "荣晟环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.79, "pe_ttm": 15.4622, "pb": 1.8797, "dv_ttm": 12.9236, "total_mv": 462525.3036, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 15.4, 8.0, 14.2, 15.0, 12.1], "rev_series": [17.0, 24.1, 25.6, 22.9, 22.4, 22.5], "np_series": [2.3, 2.8, 1.7, 2.7, 2.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [14.8, 16.1, 8.7, 12.8, 12.6, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.7, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -9.4, "ocf_yield": -7.7, "gm_median": 14.2, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 11.8, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.1, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 18.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 39.5, "payout": 49.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.2, "np_cagr3": 10.0, "rev_yoy": 11.3, "np_yoy": 65.5, "np_vol": 35.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["纸及纸制品", 32.0], ["原纸及纸制品销售", 32.0], ["蒸汽销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.6, "ret_prev2_year": 8.4, "ret_ytd": 32.4, "ret_pivot": 101.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": 9.3, "ret_250": 43.0, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 79.1}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 39, "hard": 27, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 49%、股息率 12.9%、营收 3 年复合 -4.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.4%(经营现金流/市值 -7.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.2%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.5 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 43%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -0% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "荣晟环保:PE 比行业中位低 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 32.8个百分点。"]}}