{"F": {"ts_code": "603162.SH", "name": "海通发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.64, "pe_ttm": 22.3269, "pb": 4.1311, "dv_ttm": 0.4609, "total_mv": 2012973.2088, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 41.7, 39.8, 14.6, 18.2, 16.3], "rev_series": [6.8, 16.0, 20.5, 17.1, 36.6, 44.4], "np_series": [0.7, 5.2, 6.7, 1.9, 5.5, 4.6], "roe_series": [10.4, 52.1, 39.8, 6.5, 14.2, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.1, "np_ttm": 9.0, "ocf_ttm": 16.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 18.2, "gm_std": 12.0, "gm_stab": 0.34, "gm_chg_2022": 18.0, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.2, "fix_assets": 50.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.13, "capex_dep": 3.11, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 5.6, "payout": 19.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 29.5, "np_cagr3": -11.5, "rev_yoy": 92.8, "np_yoy": 502.6, "np_vol": 274.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 17.2, "fwd_pe2": 13.7, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["航运收入", 48.0], ["其他收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.7, "ret_prev2_year": -22.9, "ret_ytd": 81.5, "ret_pivot": 178.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.0, "ret_60": 49.2, "ret_120": 54.5, "ret_250": 143.5, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 32, "hard": 100, "bondness": 11}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 503%,PE TTM 22.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.2 倍,PEG 0.69。", "自由现金流 3.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 25%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%,稳定度 34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%,稳定度 34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 3.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.3 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 144%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 49% / 54%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "海通发展:PE 比行业中位高 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点。"]}}