{"F": {"ts_code": "603158.SH", "name": "腾龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.12, "pe_ttm": 72.3375, "pb": 2.3886, "dv_ttm": 0.5337, "total_mv": 545736.3512, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.6, 24.2, 22.6, 23.0, 20.3, 18.8], "rev_series": [17.7, 22.1, 26.7, 33.0, 38.1, 41.7], "np_series": [1.6, 0.9, 1.2, 1.9, 2.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [13.8, 5.9, 6.5, 9.7, 11.5, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.2, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 22.6, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.2, "fix_assets": 13.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.6, "pb_calc": 2.39, "capex_dep": 1.85, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 22.5, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": -25.1, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 51.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 21.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.2, "fwd_g1": 238.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车热管理系统零部件", 34.0], ["EGR系统及传感器", 9.0], ["汽车用橡塑类零部件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.0, "ret_ytd": 5.5, "ret_pivot": 75.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -12.7, "ret_250": -18.5, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 58.7, "pos_52w": 68.5}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 47, "hard": 40, "bondness": 29}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 26%,PE TTM 72.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 21.4 倍,PEG 0.53。", "自由现金流 0.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 40%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.85 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -14% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "腾龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 42.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}