{"F": {"ts_code": "603153.SH", "name": "上海建科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230313", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.27, "pe_ttm": 14.5479, "pb": 1.4326, "dv_ttm": 2.0344, "total_mv": 543885.6797, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 32.5, 32.9, 33.7, 35.7, 36.9], "rev_series": [27.7, 34.4, 35.6, 40.1, 41.5, 50.0], "np_series": [2.3, 2.8, 2.8, 3.2, 3.4, 3.7], "roe_series": [11.9, 12.4, 11.1, 10.4, 9.7, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.1, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 33.7, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 8.7, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.7, "fix_assets": 15.1, "goodwill_ratio": 4.9, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 30.7, "debt_mv": 7.4, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": 10.1, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": 22.9, "np_vol": 7.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工程咨询服务", 29.0], ["决策与工程咨询服务", 29.0], ["检验检测认证与技术服务", 17.0], ["检测与技术服务", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.4, "ret_prev2_year": -0.6, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": -13.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -19.0, "ret_250": -33.3, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 24.4, "pos_52w": 66.7}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 58, "hard": 41, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.5 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.7%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.7%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.5 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -1% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "上海建科:PE 比行业中位低 26.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.0个百分点。"]}}