{"F": {"ts_code": "603151.SH", "name": "邦基科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "畜禽饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.13, "pe_ttm": 67.6227, "pb": 2.3056, "dv_ttm": 1.1026, "total_mv": 310533.9034, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 12.6, 13.7, 13.0, 9.2, 7.6], "rev_series": [17.2, 20.3, 16.6, 16.5, 25.4, 57.0], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, 1.2, 0.8, 0.5, 1.1], "roe_series": [45.5, 39.3, 14.6, 6.8, 4.1, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 12.6, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.7, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 2.03, "interest_debt": 15.0, "debt_ebitda": 9.1, "debt_ratio": 63.4, "debt_mv": 48.4, "payout": 40.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 50.9, "np_cagr3": -2.7, "rev_yoy": 11.8, "np_yoy": -100.7, "np_vol": 59.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.0, "ret_prev2_year": -33.6, "ret_ytd": 1.5, "ret_pivot": 114.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 41.2, "ret_60": 50.7, "ret_120": -4.8, "ret_250": -28.8, "mdd_250": -64.6, "vol_250": 46.8, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 42, "hard": 33, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 67.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 2.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 41% / 51% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "邦基科技:PE 比行业中位高 22.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.7个百分点。"]}}