{"F": {"ts_code": "603136.SH", "name": "天目湖", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.38, "pe_ttm": 32.0993, "pb": 1.8718, "dv_ttm": 2.1322, "total_mv": 253378.8446, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.6, 50.0, 36.2, 54.3, 52.4, 50.3], "rev_series": [3.7, 4.2, 3.7, 6.3, 5.4, 5.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 1.5, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [5.9, 4.9, 1.7, 11.7, 7.8, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 50.3, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -16.4, "npm_median": 20.4, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.0, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.87, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 10.4, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 60.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.3, "np_cagr3": 67.4, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": -29.9, "np_vol": 260.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 22.9, "fwd_pe2": 20.8, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 2.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["景区收入", 25.0], ["景区业务", 25.0], ["酒店业务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.6, "ret_prev2_year": -8.4, "ret_ytd": -19.0, "ret_pivot": -0.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": -19.5, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 29.4, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 59, "hard": 74, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.1 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 50.3%、固定资产占比 46%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 46%、毛利率 50.3% 两条都占,但所在行业(社会服务)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.1 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 6% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "天目湖:PE 比行业中位低 34.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}