{"F": {"ts_code": "603135.SH", "name": "中重科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9176, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 571465.6471, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.7, 24.2, 28.2, 28.8, 15.8, 18.7], "rev_series": [5.5, 17.8, 15.3, 11.2, 9.6, 3.8], "np_series": [1.0, 2.8, 2.8, 1.8, 0.6, -0.2], "roe_series": [13.9, 33.2, 21.1, 8.0, 1.9, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 15.8, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.2, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 25.4, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 59.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -37.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 51.8, "np_yoy": 90.8, "np_vol": 109.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 27.3, "fwd_pe2": 14.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 94.0, "peg": 0.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["智能装备及生产线业务", 30.0], ["智能装备及生产线", 30.0], ["备品备件及其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.7, "ret_prev2_year": -23.4, "ret_ytd": -2.2, "ret_pivot": 12.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -29.6, "ret_120": -20.3, "ret_250": -14.0, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 18, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 27.3 倍,次年 14.1 倍,PEG 0.29。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -30% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "中重科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点。"]}}