{"F": {"ts_code": "603132.SH", "name": "金徽股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.74, "pe_ttm": 27.6594, "pb": 5.6938, "dv_ttm": 2.8369, "total_mv": 1930572.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.7, 70.5, 67.8, 54.7, 62.6, 65.0], "rev_series": [11.2, 12.5, 12.4, 12.8, 15.4, 17.2], "np_series": [3.6, 4.6, 4.7, 3.4, 4.8, 5.4], "roe_series": [22.7, 23.1, 17.5, 10.8, 14.8, 16.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.2, "np_ttm": 7.0, "ocf_ttm": 11.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 65.0, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 31.4, "roe_median": 16.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 66.6, "fix_assets": 60.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 5.69, "capex_dep": 6.31, "interest_debt": 51.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 62.9, "debt_mv": 26.7, "payout": 79.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": 4.9, "rev_yoy": 37.0, "np_yoy": 61.5, "np_vol": 22.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 28.2, "fwd_pe2": 23.2, "fwd_g1": -2.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锌精矿", 49.0], ["铅精矿(含银)", 25.0], ["伴生银", 15.0], ["铅精矿", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.7, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": 39.9, "ret_pivot": 106.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.2, "ret_60": 27.1, "ret_120": 15.6, "ret_250": 51.7, "mdd_250": -35.8, "vol_250": 51.2, "pos_52w": 91.3}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 66}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 61 亿,占总资产 67%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铅锌 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.4%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 82%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 67%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 65.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 6.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.7 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 52%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 27% / 16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "金徽股份:PE 比行业中位高 7.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 54.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.1个百分点。"]}}