{"F": {"ts_code": "603128.SH", "name": "华贸物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.6, "pe_ttm": 15.2171, "pb": 1.1398, "dv_ttm": 4.0, "total_mv": 733066.04, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.7, 10.0, 10.6, 13.4, 10.6, 9.0], "rev_series": [140.9, 246.7, 220.7, 146.1, 175.2, 179.6], "np_series": [5.3, 8.4, 8.9, 6.2, 5.4, 4.9], "roe_series": [12.2, 17.2, 16.2, 10.6, 9.1, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 189.9, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.5, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 10.3, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 31.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 50.7, "debt_mv": 42.8, "payout": 70.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.6, "np_cagr3": -18.1, "rev_yoy": 11.7, "np_yoy": -2.9, "np_vol": 30.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 15.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["跨境综合物流", 48.0], ["特种物流", 2.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.9, "ret_ytd": -4.7, "ret_pivot": 19.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 11.0, "ret_120": -2.0, "ret_250": -9.0, "mdd_250": -22.1, "vol_250": 19.4, "pos_52w": 90.4}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 42, "hard": 7, "bondness": 80}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 -6.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.2 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 11% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "华贸物流:PE 比行业中位低 6.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点。"]}}