{"F": {"ts_code": "603124.SH", "name": "江南新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 119.21, "pe_ttm": 63.4699, "pb": 8.9439, "dv_ttm": 0.3859, "total_mv": 1737428.5292, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.9, 4.2, 2.9, 3.4, 3.8, 4.1], "rev_series": [null, 62.8, 62.3, 68.2, 87.0, 103.3], "np_series": [null, 1.5, 1.1, 1.4, 1.8, 2.2], "roe_series": [17.1, 19.8, 10.8, 12.8, 13.9, 13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 123.0, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": -7.5, "fcf_ttm": -10.0, "fcf_yield": -5.8, "ocf_yield": -4.3, "gm_median": 3.8, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.6, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.94, "capex_dep": 8.66, "interest_debt": 16.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 65.3, "debt_mv": 9.3, "payout": 25.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": 27.7, "rev_yoy": 40.8, "np_yoy": 51.7, "np_vol": 42.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 31.2, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 104.0, "fwd_g2": 72.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["铜球系列", 34.0], ["氧化铜粉系列", 10.0], ["高精密铜基散热片系列", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 52.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.8, "ret_60": -33.3, "ret_120": 19.3, "ret_250": 43.2, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 71.8, "pos_52w": 56.4}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 39, "hard": 11, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 63.5 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 31.2 倍,次年 18.1 倍,PEG 0.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.8%(经营现金流/市值 -4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 8.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 43%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -33% / 19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "江南新材:PE 比行业中位高 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}